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The U.S. economy will continue to expand for the rest of 2022, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2022 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder for 2022 are similar to those expressed in December 2021, despite continued inflation and geopolitical unrest.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Revenue for 2022 is expected to increase, on average, by 9.2 percent. This is 2.7 percentage points higher than the December 2021 forecast of 6.5 percent, and 4.9 percentage points lower than the 14.1-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2021. Sixty-three percent of respondents say that revenues for 2022 will increase, on average, 15.5 percent compared to 2021. Only seven percent say revenues will decrease (10 percent, on average), and 30 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 87.2 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (7.4 percent), prices paid for raw materials (11.1 percent) and employment (3.2 percent) by the end of 2022, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil of 2020 and 2021. "With 16 manufacturing sector industries expecting revenue growth in 2022, and 13 industries expecting employment growth in 2022 panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year. Sentiment in each sector was generally consistent with industry performance reports in the April 2022 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, as well as the fall Semiannual Economic Forecast conducted in December," says Fiore.